More of the same for commercial vehicle demand in July

Aug. 24, 2016

Class 8 net orders in July fell 20% month over month, but contracted nearly 58% on a year over year basis, to a total of 10,358 units. Medium-duty net orders totaled 15,364 units, rising 1% m/m and y/y.

These results were published in the latest State of the Industry report, recently released by ACT Research Co (ACT). The report covers Classes 5 through 8 vehicles for the North American market.

“Outside of the bright spot that continues to be demand for vehicles in Mexico, July’s batch of Class 8 market indicators provided no sign of near-term relief,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst. “The US and Canadian tractor (especially sleeper) markets remain overcapacitized. Historically, July is the worst order month of the year. To improve interpretation, ACT seasonally adjusts its data. July’s 10,400 Class 8 net orders (124k SAAR) seasonally adjusts to 12,000 units (142k SAAR). Actual or adjusted, we have to go back to Q1 2010 to find comparably weak volumes.”

He added that steady-as-she-goes sentiment remains in place for medium-duty vehicle markets. “After an eight-month run in which Classes 5-7 orders averaged 21,300 units/month, driven in part by new product introductions, orders have cooled,” he said. “In July, total Classes 5-7 net orders rose 1% m/m and y/y to 15,364 units, with seasonal adjustment boosting the total to 18.200 units.”