Reports: September Class 8 truck orders show resilience

ACT Research and FTR Intel data highlight carriers navigating 2027 EPA emissions uncertainty while upgrading heavy-duty freight equipment.
Oct. 13, 2026
3 min read
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Key Highlights

  • Diverging order estimates: FTR reports preliminary NA Class 8 net orders of 21,300 units (up 18% month-over-month), while ACT Research estimates 18,700 units (down 9.5% year-over-year).
  • ACT assessment: Analysts attribute disrupted seasonal order patterns to delayed OEM orderboard openings and ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding finalized 2027 EPA NOx standards.
  • FTR assessment: Analysts point out that surcharge-free MY 2026 build slots are virtually sold out, shifting fleet attention toward MY 2027 engine choices, potential nonconformance penalties, and acquisition cost increases.
538943411 | Adobe Stock
September's North American Class 8 truck orders show mixed results amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty, with underlying demand remaining strong despite disrupted seasonal patterns caused by pending EPA 2027 NOx rules.

September's North American Class 8 truck orders show mixed results amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty, with underlying demand remaining strong despite disrupted seasonal patterns caused by pending EPA 2027 NOx rules.

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for September saw mixed volume estimates from industry analysts, but a clear consensus emerged: Underlying demand remains solid even as the transition to 2027 emissions standards creates significant regulatory and pricing uncertainty.

While FTR Intel reported 21,300 units for the month—representing an 18% month-over-month bump and 3% year-over-year increase—ACT Research logged a softer 18,700 units, down 9.5% from the same period last year. Despite the numerical discrepancy, both firms agree that the lack of finalized Environmental Protection Agency 2027 NOx rules is disrupting traditional order seasonality, altering OEM strategies, and complicating long-term fleet planning.

“The 2027 regulatory engine transition is clearly impacting order seasonality this year, but the underlying demand for new equipment remains robust, supported by strong spot rate momentum,” Carter Vieth, ACT research analyst, said in a news release.

ACT Research
North American Class 8 preliminary net orders reached 18,700 units in September, representing a 9.5% decline year-over-year, ACT reported. Seasonally adjusted net orders checked in at 16,600 units.

North American Class 8 preliminary net orders reached 18,700 units in September, representing a 9.5% decline year-over-year, ACT reported. Seasonally adjusted net orders checked in at 16,600 units.

ACT: Disrupted order season

According to ACT Research, September typically ushers in the traditional “order season” for heavy-duty trucks. However, with some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) delaying the full opening of their 2027 orderboards, those normal seasonal patterns have been broken.

ACT analysts noted that fleets are anxious to update their operations, but the lingering questions out of Washington are causing friction. Vieth pointed out that while carriers are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for future cost hikes, the lack of regulatory clarity is making effective planning incredibly difficult.

Consequently, ACT expects the Class 8 backlog to decline from August levels once full September data is published in mid-October.

FTR: Transitioning to MY 2027

FTR’s more bullish estimate reflects a market where the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy has officially ended. Surcharge-free model year 2026 engine build slots are effectively sold out, which FTR believes may have shifted some deferred August orders into September as OEMs transitioned their books.

FTR Intel
Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders reached 21,300 units in September, representing an 18% month-over-month increase and a 3% year-over-year bump, according to new FTR data.

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders reached 21,300 units in September, representing an 18% month-over-month increase and a 3% year-over-year bump, according to new FTR data.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, emphasized that the industry’s focus is now firmly on MY 2027 engine choices and costs. He noted that the EPA’s July proposal allows for transition flexibility, such as emissions credits and nonconformance penalties (NCPs). FTR estimates that utilizing NCPs could result in a $6,000 to $7,000 fleet pass-through, which presents a notable saving compared to the estimated $8,000 to $12,000 upcharge required for a fully compliant engine.

Because truck and engine manufacturers are deploying varying emissions strategies—and some have yet to clarify their plans completely—Moyer indicated the final EPA rule could still shift the economic landscape for bulk haulers and other fleets.

“Higher NCPs would narrow the cost advantage of current-generation engines while lower NCPs would make that pathway more attractive,” Moyer said, adding that the final regulatory decisions will heavily influence 2027 engine availability, acquisition costs, and the mix of technologies fleets select.

About the Author

Jason McDaniel
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Jason McDaniel

Jason McDaniel, based in the Houston TX area, has more than 20 years of experience as an award-winning journalist. He spent 15 writing and editing for daily newspapers, including the Houston Chronicle, and began covering the commercial vehicle industry in 2018. He was named editor of Bulk Transporter and Refrigerated Transporter magazines in July 2020.

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