FTR pointed out that replacement demand, firmer freight rates, and a moderate pre-buy to avoid new emissions changes are continuing to support the market. Through July, net orders for 2026 to date were up 120% compared to the same period last year.
“With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model year 2027 engine technology, pricing, and build timing,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles. Almost all model year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx regulations. However, EPA’s proposed revisions to the 2027 NOx rule, published on July 14, introduce considerable flexibility for truck and engine manufacturers to address fleet demand.”
Elaborating on how engine makers might adapt, Moyer added: “For example, under EPA’s planned changes, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, subject to the payment of nonconformance penalties (NCPs), which presumably will be passed along to truck buyers. Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so.
“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels.”