For industry executives and transportation leaders navigating the current economic landscape, new data reveals a resilient domestic market. According to PMCF Investment Banking’s “Transportation & Logistics M&A Pulse” for the second quarter, U.S. M&A activity in the sector has stabilized, recording 28 closed transactions—and holding steady with year-over-year volumes.

This domestic resilience stands in contrast to softer global markets, where deal volumes dipped 24.4% year-over-year from 82 down to 62 transactions. “Structural cost and trade advantages have enabled U.S. acquirers to maintain steady deal activity, outperforming softer global M&A markets,” the firm wrote in an email to Bulk Transporter. “Strategic buyers remain the most active, with earnings from improved spot rates increasing the capital available for strategic M&A.”

Fuel advantages and market drivers

U.S. carriers continue to benefit from critical operational tailwinds that bolster buyer confidence and transaction pipelines:

• Fuel cost edge: Domestic carriers are leveraging a meaningful fuel-cost advantage, with European diesel running roughly 60% higher than U.S. levels as European operators grapple with energy prices tied to ongoing supply risks.
• Nearshoring momentum: Tariff-driven nearshoring is driving up regional freight activity, highlighted by a 7.1% year-over-year increase in U.S.-Mexico cross-border freight.
• Spot rate recovery: An exit of excess carrier capacity throughout 2025—prompted by historically muted spot rates and escalating operating expenses—has sparked a robust recovery in freight rates. Spot van rates climbed to $3.00 (up 48.5% year-over-year), while reefer and flatbed spot rates reached $3.38 and $3.71, respectively.

Public sector gains and valuation expansion

Public market performance for transportation and logistics outpaced broader equities in Q2 2026, growing by 21.2% compared to the S&P 500’s 14.9% growth, PMCF reported. Within the subsegments, trucking led the way with a notable 35.2% quarter-over-quarter stock price increase, fueled by rising spot rates and resilient consumer spending.

Valuation multiples across the T&L sector expanded from 12.4x to 13.5x quarter-over-quarter. Nearly every segment posted gains, with third-party logistics leading the charge at a 54.9% multiple expansion year-over-year, closely followed by trucking up 49.1%. Asset-heavy carriers such as Marten, Werner, and Knight-Swift saw the largest gains as recovering spot rates lifted forward earnings expectations.

Key strategic takeaways

As transportation executives look toward the back half of 2026, dealmakers are closely monitoring a few key trends shaping buyer interest:

• Data centers as growth end markets: Surging investments in data center construction are creating high demand for specialized logistics, including delicate server rack rigging and climate-controlled transport.
• Cross-border diversification: Domestic heavy forwarders are actively acquiring international capabilities (such as drayage and ocean customs brokerage) to hedge against historical rate cyclicality.
• The dominance of add-on acquisitions: Private equity sponsors remain focused on buy-and-build strategies, with add-on transactions accounting for roughly 75% of private equity deals as platforms leverage scale for valuation arbitrage.

With freight rates rebounding, robust consumer spending, and strong capital availability among strategic buyers, the firm’s M&A outlook for the remainder of the year remains highly optimistic.