Eia Graphic Crude Oil Prices

EIA: U.S. crude oil production will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2023

Jan. 27, 2022
Energy administration also expects OPEC to increase crude oil production to 28.9 million barrels per day next year, up from 26.3 million in 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted in a recent forecast that U.S. oil production will average 12.4 million barrels per day next year, surpassing the record high for domestic crude production set in 2019.

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said U.S. crude oil production will increase for nine consecutive quarters, from the fourth quarter of 2021 through 2023.

EIA also anticipates that OPEC will increase crude oil production to 28.9 million barrels per day in 2023, up from an average of 26.3 million barrels per day in 2021.

“We expect global demand for petroleum products to return to and surpass pre-pandemic levels this year, but crude oil production grows at a faster rate in our forecasts,” said Steve Nalley, EIA’s acting administrator.

“We expect that as crude oil production increases, inventories will begin to replenish and help push prices lower for gasoline, jet fuel, and other products in the short term.”

EIA sees U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reaching 465 million barrels by the end of 2023, which would be about 11% more than inventories at the end of last year.

Other key takeaways from the latest STEO include:

  • EIA estimates the United States produced 1.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of solar power in 2021, a 23.7% increase from 2020. EIA forecasts U.S. consumption of solar-generated electricity to increase a further 27.3% in 2022 and 25.2% in 2023.
  • By September 2023, EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to reach an average of 98 billion cubic feet per day for the first time and then to average 98.2 billion cubic feet per day the second half of 2023.
  • U.S. coal consumption increased by 14% in 2021 in response to growing demand for coal-fired electricity. EIA expects U.S. coal consumption to decrease by 2% this year and remain relatively unchanged next year. Despite the decrease in consumption, EIA forecasts coal production will increase 6% in 2022.

The entire Short-Term Energy Outlook is available here.