In a recent episode of The Fleet Lead podcast, Bulk Transporter Editor Jason McDaniel sat down with Spencer Tenney, president and CEO of the Tenney Group, to discuss the trucking mergers-and-acquisitions scene. The discussion examined transportation M&A, valuation, safety, private equity, freight technology, and expected consolidation in the bulk transportation sector.

The generational shift in family businesses

Many trucking companies in the bulk sector are multi-generational, but families are increasingly considering sales. Operating costs, capital requirements, succession challenges, and competitive pressure make continued ownership more difficult. Tenney explained that to remain competitive moving into the future, significant capital must be put at risk, leading many families to conclude that redeploying their capital is the best stewardship of wealth for the next generations.

What drives valuation in a recovering market?

After a 30-plus-month freight recession, deal activity is improving as freight markets stabilize and interest rates become more favorable. Valuation depends heavily on trailing-12-month performance, differentiation, specialized capabilities, contracted volume, and customer relationship durability. Tenney noted that customer concentration is not automatically a negative factor; it can actually be attractive when the relationship can scale quickly and is difficult for competitors to replace. Conversely, buyers may discount businesses with replaceable customer relationships or unresolved liability.

Safety as a deal-maker

A carrier’s safety culture, documentation, and vetting practices actively reduce transaction risk. Buyers are moving safety and carrier-vetting diligence earlier in the acquisition process to identify potential liability before incurring major diligence costs. While strong safety records might not instantly yield higher valuations directly, their immediate financial impact is expected to appear first through more business and better rates, which then positively affect valuation.

The tech factor and future consolidation

Private equity remains selective in asset-heavy transportation, favoring high-performing platforms with experienced leadership and credible bolt-on opportunities. Regarding technology, AI is expected to enhance rather than replace legacy TMS platforms, optimizing functionality and potentially changing the economics of software licensing without eliminating the underlying systems. Tenney forecasts major transformational transactions before the end of the year and especially during the first two quarters of 2027, with additional consolidation expected in bulk transportation.

To hear the full discussion on bulk transportation M&A, listen to the podcast episode above.

Time stamps:

• 01:35 — Background and succession: Tenney describes his path to joining and purchasing his family’s advisory firm after gaining experience in healthcare and music publishing. Internal succession can preserve ownership when it supports the family, employees, customers, and business; otherwise, an outside successor may be appropriate.
• 04:30 — M&A market: Trimac’s 19 acquisitions since 2019 reflect its ability to self-fund deals and pursue strategic acquisitions despite a difficult freight market. Freight stabilization, interest rates, demographic shifts, and deferred transactions are expected to increase deal flow.
• 09:30 — Valuation factors: Trailing-12-month earnings, operating-cost trends, differentiation, customer concentration, contracted lanes, specialized services, and leadership talent influence value.
• 15:15 — Safety and risk: Strong safety records and public recognition help carriers attract business and may improve rates. Buyers are moving safety diligence earlier in the acquisition process to identify liability.
• 22:30 — Investment and technology: Private equity interest in asset-heavy transportation is selective and centered on elite-performing platforms. AI may optimize TMS functionality without eliminating the underlying platforms.
• 29:00 — Forward outlook: Tenney forecasts major M&A activity through 2027, followed by possible saturation in the small-to-mid-sized trucking market. Business owners are encouraged to stay informed about market conditions and maintain optionality around recapitalization, partnerships, or a sale.

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