Global liquid fuels production will increase by 1 million barrels per day in 2024, according to a new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
EIA also expects a slight decline in global fuel inventories next year, the agency said.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA predicts Brent crude oil prices will average about $93 per barrel in 2024, up by over $9 per barrel from this year. Risks of supply disruptions and price volatility are heightened amid potential conflict spreading in the Middle East.
In addition, EIA expects U.S. motorists to consume less gasoline per capita in 2024, resulting in the lowest gasoline consumption in two decades. “U.S. motorists are driving less because they aren't commuting to work every day, newer gasoline-fueled vehicles are more efficient, and there are more electric vehicles on the road,” Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, said in a news release. “Put those trends together with high gasoline prices and high inflation, and we find that U.S. motorists are using less gasoline.”
Other highlights from the November STEO include:
- Coal markets. Record coal demand from Europe and Asia is driving U.S. coal exports to return to pre-pandemic levels. EIA expects U.S. coal production to fall in 2024 as the domestic electric power sector generates more power from renewable resources, such as solar and wind, rather than coal.
- Electricity consumption. U.S. electricity consumption will increase next year, and the largest increase will be in the residential sector. Winter conditions in 2024 will be colder and summer temperatures will be warmer than in 2023, which contributes to higher consumption. Electricity consumption will also increase in the commercial and industrial sectors.