Reports: Demand shortfall stymies Class 8 orders
North American Class 8 truck orders in October were down significantly compared to October 2024, according to new data from FTR Intel and ACT Research.
FTR reported October orders of 24,300 units, an 18% month-over-month increase but a 22% year-over-year decline that marked the tenth consecutive month of annual declines.
Class 8 orders are at 230,643 units over the last 12 months, FTR added.
Orders remained well below the 10-year October average of 31,198 units as fleets continued to delay replacement and expansion plans amid soft freight demand, excess capacity, high interest rates, tariff volatility, uneven economic growth, regulatory uncertainty, and compressed margins, FTR explained. Both the vocational and on-highway segments saw monthly gains, but the on-highway market accounted for most of the annual decline, reflecting sustained fleet caution heading into 2026.
“Early indicators for the 2026 order cycle reinforce this cautious outlook,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said in a news release. “Combined net orders for September and October are 32% below year-ago levels, highlighting persistent weakness in freight fundamentals and limited carrier profitability. The month-over-month uptick in October likely reflects targeted replacement activity rather than renewed investment. For OEMs and suppliers, visibility remains limited, and order trends are expected to stay uneven until freight volumes and rates improve. In the meantime, fleets are focusing on cost control and asset utilization over growth, delaying a meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions stabilize.
“For the industry, the new tariffs on heavy-duty trucks that are taking effect this month will raise costs but are less severe and more targeted than expected. USMCA carve-outs, offsets, and the delayed parts tariff create a measured policy that encourages reshoring and strengthens North American supply chains. Some production appears to be already shifting toward U.S. assembly, though expanding capacity will take time. Overall, the framework aims to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asia while leaving room for future policy adjustments.”
Uncertainty hampers truck demand
ACT reported OEMs logged 40,000 orders for Class 5-8 power units in a 17% year-over-year decline.
“Preliminary Class 8 orders totaled 24,500 units in October, down 21% year-over-year, a notably weak number when you take into consideration October is seasonally the strongest month for orders with a 25% seasonal factor,” said Carter Vieth, ACT research analyst. “This is the time of year when next year’s backlogs get built. Rising costs, still weak spot rates, and ongoing uncertainty continue to hamper for-hire carriers, and as a result, have led to a muted order season to date. Additionally, private fleet demand has slowed after recent expansion.”
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added: “Preliminary reporting shows October North American Class 5-7 orders decreased 11% year-over-year to 15,500 units. Economic uncertainty and rising consumer pessimism continue to weigh on Class 5-7 demand.”
