While the medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle markets are expected to grow modestly off weak 2009 production—the lowest level of production since 1991—the sector will see significant growth in 2011, according to ACT Research Co.
In the latest release of the ACT North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT predicts Class 8 vehicle production will grow 22% in 2010 but will still be below vehicle replacement levels. Class 8 vehicle production is projected to grow an additional 69% in 2011. Medium-duty truck (Classes 5-7) production, which is largely tied to health of the construction industry, is expected to see y/y growth of about 30% in both 2010 and 2011.
“There are still a number of hurdles to clear in the coming quarters, including continued excess trucking sector capacity, a soft used-truck market, tight credit, and weak freight rates,” said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. “However, the fleet is aging, and truckers are increasingly making comments about the condition of their fleets. When the freight market regains solid footing, the recovery in commercial vehicle demand promises to be vertical.”