Preliminary reports for May 2026 reveal a significant and unexpected uptick in U.S. trailer demand, according to the latest data from ACT Research and FTR Intel. While the two firms report slightly different final tallies, both confirm a market that is currently countering traditional cyclical expectations with massive year-over-year gains.

ACT reported preliminary net trailer orders of 20,700 units, a 7% increase over April and a staggering 237% jump compared to the tepid performance of May 2025. A subsequent report from ACT adjusted this figure slightly to 20,900 orders, noting that the industry has not seen a 20,000-plus order intake month since January.

FTR’s findings align with this upward trajectory, recording 20,189 units for May. This represents a 1% month-over-month increase and a 249% surge year-over-year. FTR noted that these volumes are far above the 10-year May average of 11,649 units, indicating better-than-seasonal momentum as the industry moves into late spring.

“Despite the stronger May order intake, the market still does not appear to be entering a broad-based upcycle, especially with seasonally slower order months approaching,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, cautioned in a news release.

Market drivers and carrier confidence

The strength in May is particularly notable because the month is traditionally the second weakest in the annual order cycle. Analysts suggest this year’s cycle was delayed, with the usual autumn upticks not appearing until December. This recent momentum is being buttressed by rising freight rates and increasing carrier confidence.

However, the market is not yet in a “broad-based upcycle.” According to FTR, demand remains concentrated in replacement activity, fleet-specific needs, and dry van normalization, rather than widespread capacity expansion. Furthermore, many fleet decision-makers are currently prioritizing accelerated Class 8 tractor purchases over trailers.

Production challenges and rising costs

While orders are rising, trailer production is moving in the opposite direction. U.S. trailer builds declined 6% month-over-month in May to 16,553 units. Because net orders have outpaced builds for four of the first five months of 2026, backlogs grew by more than 5% in May. Despite this growth, ACT characterized current backlogs as “anemic,” suggesting the industry is still traveling toward “healthier times.”

Manufacturers are also facing significant cost pressures. May saw a sharp increase in the Producer Price Index for truck trailers and chassis. These costs are being exacerbated by:

• Changes in Section 232 tariffs, leading to higher overall tariffs on trailers.
• Potential antidumping and countervailing duties for van-type trailers and subassemblies.

These policy impacts may create opportunities for domestic suppliers but could also result in firmer pricing, tighter build slots, and extended lead times, analysts say.

Mixed signals for the remainder of 2026

The outlook remains cautious. While May data confirm a “surprising order intake,” it remains to be seen if this momentum will carry through the traditionally slower summer months. Additionally, cancellation rates remained elevated at 1.9% of the backlog in May, with high cancellations reported across most trailer segments.

So, while optimism is on the rise due to improving order intake and clearer policy impacts, the industry continues to navigate a complex landscape of rising costs and cautious purchasing strategies.